Bearings, as core foundational components, constitute a vital segment of industrial infrastructure. The bearing industry is a strategic sector essential for national development and defense, providing crucial support for both economic progress and military construction. Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China, particularly with the advent of reform and opening up, the bearing industry has undergone sustained and rapid growth. China has now established a comprehensive industrial system, ranking third globally in terms of bearing sales and production volume. It is advancing steadily towards becoming a powerhouse in the global bearing market. Notably during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, numerous enterprises in China's bearing industry have persevered, overcoming challenges, and achieved steady and rapid development, laying a solid foundation for the nation to become a global bearing powerhouse.
As of 2022, the industry comprises over 1,300 enterprises with a total revenue of 223.2 billion yuan and a bearing production volume of 21.2 billion sets. In 2022, China's cumulative export earnings from bearings reached 7.255 billion USD, while bearing-related imports amounted to 4.564 billion USD, with 2.721 billion sets imported.
Despite China's status as a major producer of bearings globally, it has yet to attain the status of a bearing powerhouse. There exists a significant gap in industrial structure, research and development capabilities, technological standards, product quality, and efficiency compared to international standards. Currently, nearly 10,000 bearing and bearing product-related enterprises exist domestically, with low to medium-end products accounting for over 80% of the market. In the global high-end bearing market, Chinese enterprises hold only a 5% share.
Challenges Exist:
Inadequate Technical Specifications:
National standards such as GB/T 25767-2010 for Tapered Roller Bearings and GB/T 4661-2015 for Cylindrical Roller Bearings clearly define the parameters and precision indicators. However, manufacturing capabilities are limited by various factors, with Chinese bearing companies only able to mass-produce G2-grade cylindrical rollers and Grade III tapered rollers, failing to meet the requirements for high-end bearings. To develop high-end bearings, roller technology must achieve the ability to mass-produce G1-grade cylindrical rollers, Grade I tapered rollers, and Grade II spherical rollers.
Material Issues:
The quality of bearing steel significantly impacts the processing quality, service life, and reliability of bearing products. Although advancements in technology and equipment have elevated China's bearing steel smelting standards and metallurgical quality to approximate or reach international levels in some aspects, there remains a considerable gap in overall quality compared to developed countries. Issues include inadequate control of carbide particle size and distribution in current bearing steel standards, leading to lower product longevity and reliability compared to foreign counterparts.
Disparity in Roller Technology:
The gap between China's roller technology and international standards is evident in the equipment used for roller processing. While foreign processing primarily employs line arrangements, domestic bearing roller processing mostly relies on single machines, multiple processes, and steps, with some machining stages suffering from poor precision and stability. This results in inconsistent bearing states and unstable lifespans. Notably, despite domestic companies using cold extrusion for roller forming, the equipment lags behind international standards, especially in adapting to larger roller sizes.
Future Trends in Roller Bearing Technology Market:
Roller bearings are crucial structural types within rolling bearings, playing an irreplaceable role in large machinery and heavy-load applications. Especially in industries such as high-speed rail, tunneling machinery, and wind power generation, the demand for indigenous roller bearings is becoming increasingly urgent. The development level of bearing rollers not only affects the breakthroughs in high-end bearing products but also impacts the security and controllability of the mainframe industry chain.
According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals for the national bearing industry by 2025, the target is to reach a bearing output of 25 billion sets and sales revenue of 250 billion yuan (223.7-258.3 billion yuan). The global demand for bearing products is expected to reach 150 billion USD by 2025, with roller bearings accounting for 15 billion USD of the total demand.
In 2021, out of 111 surveyed enterprises in the bearing industry, roller bearing production (referring to cylindrical and tapered rollers) accounted for 19.27% of the total bearing output. Particularly for high-end roller bearings supporting key machinery, the corresponding tolerance requirements are at Grade I or even Grade O levels.
Notable developments in the roller bearing market in recent years include:
Shield Tunneling Machine Cutterhead System Main Bearings:
Main bearings for shield tunneling machines require high precision. The cutterhead is a critical component of shield tunneling machines, playing a vital role in tunnel excavation. The main bearings in the cutterhead system are core components for transmitting excavation power and motion, enduring significant axial and overturning loads, and certain radial forces during operation. Their performance, lifespan, and reliability directly affect construction progress, safety, and tunneling mileage.
Wind Turbine Main Shaft Bearings and Gearbox Bearings:
The localization rate of wind turbine main shaft bearings is 33.0%, mostly for turbines of 3.0 MW and below. The bearing industry has just entered this field and requires intensified efforts in technological breakthroughs and market expansion. The localization rates for gearbox bearings and generator bearings are only 0.58% and 0.2%, respectively. These areas remain largely unexplored by the bearing industry. Wind turbine main shaft bearings and gearbox bearings mostly use cylindrical and tapered roller bearings with precision requirements of P5 or higher, with most still relying on imports. However, there has been progress in the development of high-power wind turbine main shaft bearings.
High-Speed Train Axle Bearings:
High-speed train axle bearings demand high performance. Currently, most high-speed train bearings are imported. Bearings for high-speed trains, which mainly operate under high-speed heavy-load conditions, have stringent requirements. The market for high-speed train bearings mainly involves replacement demand. For bearings used at speeds not exceeding 200 km/h, the warranty period is 900,000 kilometers (or 4 years). Bearings for speeds exceeding 200 km/h require regular maintenance and must be scrapped after 2.4 million kilometers of service. The market potential for high-speed train bearings is approximately 700 million yuan.
Other High-End Roller Bearings:
Roller bearings for urban rail transit, machine tool spindle bearings, heavy truck wheel hub bearings, among others, also hold substantial market potential.
Overall, the future of the roller bearing technology market in China presents promising opportunities for advancements and market expansion, particularly in critical sectors such as infrastructure, renewable energy, and transportation.